The Numbers Game

Over the years I’ve complained about the lack of media interest in the SNP.  As a party they’ve struggled long and hard for air time and any recognition in the printed press, but this time round it feels as if the UK’s immediate future will certainly involve the SNP to some degree.

Polls have them flying high and Westminster is running scared, very scared.  Quite a delight to watch at times.

But with Nicola Sturgeon having such a prominent presence, both on our screens and in our newspapers, there are bound to be articles which she hoped wouldn’t achieve the light of day. The Daily Express runs this one.  If this is true then I’m concerned about Scotland’s future.  It’s well known large businesses do recruit personnel overseas when they can’t attract British workers, but in this situation, it appears actions were taken purely on financial grounds.  Where are the unions I wonder.

All regular readers know that I support an independent Scotland but I’m not a member of the SNP or any other political party.  My choices are limited because of my lifelong belief that Scotland could and should be independent. It’s the SNP or the Greens and I really shiver when I hear the leader of the Green Party mention some of their policies. They want to raise the living wages rate to £10 an hour and fund it by a wealth tax on the top 1%. I vaguely recall this policy has been proposed by every political party over the years without any result. 

Enough about the Greens. They’re not in the running for any landslide.  If the media are to be believed then the SNP is the party which will experience a landslide, although I think the projections are exaggerated.  Nevertheless, it would seem gains will be made all over Scotland and the numbers of SNP MPs will be increased in Westminster. A hatchet job was done on the SNP by the Backbencher recently but I doubt if it will make much difference to Scottish voters.

More concerning is Nicola Sturgeon’s determination to prop up the Labour party, thereby putting Ed Miliband in No 10. Ed Miliband is weak, very weak. He is not Prime Minister material. Ms Sturgeon will be very aware that he is inadequate.

Thus we - or perhaps I should say I - have a conundrum. The Tories and Labour are currently running a close race. The LibDems are running backwards and UKIP’s ratings have taken a sharp fall. Some suggest the Tories will win and run a minority government.  A well-run minority government is possible and as some highly experienced Tory MPs will surely be re-elected, it could work.

Labour may few experienced MPs, particularly from Scottish constituencies. The ‘big hitters’ are all jumping ship and the remainder look like their leader - weak.

Politics isn’t a ‘care for the people’ game it’s a numbers game. The SNP, like all other parties, wants a greater presence and recognition in Westminster and in order to make their presence felt need to join with either the Tories or Labour. The SNP has consistently ruled the Tories out and has no other option than Labour.

I don’t think Ed Miliband would be good for the UK or for Scotland.  At least the coalition in the last UK government left us alone most of the time and David Cameron was ‘kind’ enough to permit the referendum.

My vote will go to the SNP but not because I agree with any joint formal or informal agreement with Labour. I doubt propping up Labour will bring independence closer.

However, it’s all about numbers. Nick Clegg would sell his granny for another stint in power and the LibDem leader says he’ll talk with any party. Power over principles indeed.

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Eastleigh

So there we have it. The Libdems kept hold of Eastleigh with UKIP coming a close second.

Nowadays there's nothing between the Tories, Labour and Libdems.  The imagine sums up politics today.

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No April Fools Here (With the exception of Peter Cruddas)

Image courtesy of @Jakimac

Hazel has a superb idea for 'fueling the independence debate'. It may not please the Greens but it would certainly highlight the positive side of independence and the debate needs an injection of positivity. A freebie fridge magnet would be an ideal PR tool and not expensive.

The Sunday Times has been at it again, displaying the Tories ambivalence for independence. No surprise really as they've little to lose when Scotland departs from the Union other than the Treasury income from oil. Their friends in the City will ensure none of their lifestyles are affected, particularly when they're very aware a Union without Scotland will make England bluer than ever.

I had intended to visit a famous old bird today but have decided it may be more sensible to leave visiting until later in the week.

   

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Another Tory Sex Scandal

The leader of Slough's Conservative party has been charged with bigamy.

Cllr Pervez Choudhry (pictured) of Tuns Lane, who represents the Central Ward, was arrested and charged on Monday. The 52-year-old will appear at Maidenhead Magistrates Court next Monday to face one count of bigamy. He has been released on police bail.

Who wanted revenge? A colleague or one of his wives?

All credit to the tories though- they do sex scandals so much better than labour and the libdems!

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Update

UPDATE

My apologies but I've been just too occupied elsewhere to write a post this evening.

For those of you who were interested in the devolution post, (not forgetting the comments), Joyce McMillan has now put her column online. The Dog That Did Not Bark: Or, The Strange Silence of the SNP.

A worthwhile read.

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Who Benefits?

Congratulations to the 21 (8%) of readers who saw foresaw the result. May I suggest a future in the political media awaits you!

What effect will the new ConDem coalition have on Scotland?

The SNP's haste at wishing to talk with labour may be forgiven since they conducted themselves, since Sunday, with more reason and less desperation.

The libdems in Scotland are upset. I've been following Caron and understand her anxiety at the new coalition but surely not all Scottish libdems will carry a grievance if the coalition proves a success. Those who do will possibly vote SNP next year at the Scottish Parliament elections although libdem support in Scotland could increase with their higher profile in Westminster.

Scottish tory voters will, like all parties, have a section of voters who are appalled their party is in coalition with one of the 'opposition'. Will they forgive? Who knows. There are quite a few tories who rather fancy independence and combined with their resentment of the libdems, will play into the hands of the SNP.

What happens to labour in Scotland now? The west is their power base. They have nowhere else. The SNP offered help which was sneeringly swept aside (much in the same way as the libdems approach to them in London by all accounts). They have lost their leader and for the next months their party will be in turmoil as the internal battle commences. Labour and tory leadership contests are never pleasant to observe.

Who will benefit? If they play their cards right the SNP could be the winners with libdems and tory voters coming their way. A few labour voters, unhappy with their new leadership, could drift over too next year but their vote will be a protest one and unreliable in an independence referendum.

In the past few days I did read one commenter who said: 'labour offered the libdems a referendum on the voting system, so surely they can't reject the SNP's proposal for a referendum on independence'. My immediate thought was: 'Aye they can and they probably will. Nothing labour does has the future of Scotland in mind. Their concern is subjective, not objective.'

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When Nadine Dorries Visited Scotland

Remember this Question Time when the tories flew in Nadine Dorries to Glasgow where she faced a Scottish audience? For me it showed exactly how little the tories respect Scotland when she didn't have even the slightest understanding of the Trident issue.

Advice to tories: Do your homework before you make any attempt to preach to the Scots. We're smarter than you think.

Thanks to scunnert

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Nuclear Weapons - Labour and Tories Show Their True Colours

Alistair Carmichael (Libdem) and Angus Robertson (SNP)

On the Politics Show at lunchtime Labour and the Tories were asked why we need nuclear weapons. They couldn't give an answer other than to say the present world is unstable with Iran being a threat. Also they couldn't answer when asked under what circumstances they would be used, although Jim Murphy stated their existence kept many in employment in the Clyde area.

Angus Robertson (SNP) gave a direct answer by saying he wanted rid of them because he didn't want to see hundreds of millions of people killed by these chemical missiles, but the most impressive reply for me was from Alistair Carmichael (Libdem) who said it was time the nuclear issue depended upon the needs of the military and stopped being treated as a job creation scheme.

Well said Mr Carmichael. Of course if Trident was halted there would be job loses in Scotland but maybe we could well see Scotland become a far more innovative and motivated country if those who were made redundant put their skills to good use either on an individual basis or collectively. We've lost the ability to grasping opportunities - this could be a chance for many to start their own businesses.

We don't need Trident in Scotland. We don't even have any control over it as we're only a storage facility. The US is in charge and holds the keys.

Labour and the Tories are so happy to spend our money on weapons they admit are past their time, plus of course give billions to other countries through DFID. How can anyone with a sense of justice vote for them?

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News of the Blues

The News of the World has decided David Cameron and the Tory Party must be given a chance.

The paper now wishes to be known as the News of the Blues.

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The Tory Leader's new EU Treaty Dilemma

Poor David Cameron, I do slightly sympathise with him on the odd occasion and this is one of them. His party is divided about the European Union and in recent months he's tried to silence the dissenters, only to have this rear it's head.

Angela Merkel has called for a new EU treaty to strengthen the rules of the eurozone. Whether it be David Cameron or Gordon Brown who be Prime Minister after 6 May we will have a referendum on this matter. Both labour and the tories are committed to a referendum on future treaty changes.

Eurosceptic Tory MPs have seized on the chance of a referendum to talk up the prospect of renegotiating Britain's relationship with Europe but the Times reports Mr Cameron could argue that Mrs Merkel's demands would not directly affect Britain and need not trigger a referendum. She will also have difficulty convincing France, Sweden and others that a new EU treaty is needed after the drawn-out process of passing the Lisbon Treaty.

Mrs Merkel's statement came after she reluctantly agreed to lend German support to a bailout plan for Greece. She wants tougher powers to direct European economies to stop them ignoring existing rules and sliding into meltdown like Greece. "I think we will not be able to bypass possible treaty changes, I think we need them," she said yesterday.

Gordon Brown told the House of Commons in 2007 that he ruled out new treaties for this parliament and the next.

Reading between the lines, it would appear the politicians have covered their backs regarding their 'commitment' to a referendum on treaty changes. It would be up to the tory Eurosceptic MPs to push their leader into honouring the promise - that is if Cameron does win the election.

Sue has her own interpretation on this subject.

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Just As Well This Tory PPC Isn't Standing in Scotland

Thanks to Scunnert

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Polls - Which to Believe?

Poll results have been the life blood of the press in the past couple of days. The Times today headlines 'Salmond's ratings slump as Brown stages revival'.

An Ipsos MORI survey of more that 1000 Scots reveals that the First Minister's voter satisfaction ratings are down by 9% from six months ago, while the Prime Minister's have risen by 9% in the same period and are now slightly ahead of the SNP leader.

The poll also shows that the SNP, on 32% support, are now 2% behind Labour on 34% - a direct reversal of MORI's findings only three months ago.

If the evidence from the poll is rather sobering for Mr Salmond, it is positively gloomy for the Scottish Conservatives with still no sign of a 'Cameron bounce' in Scotland. The tories are trailing third place on 17% with the libdems still further behind on 12%.

Nicola Sturgeon described the poll findings as "fantastic". She added: "We are neck-and-neck with Labour in Westminster voting intentions and we have a substantial 7-point lead in Scottish Parliament voting intentions."

Overall for me that's not a bad result for the SNP. Why so many feel Gordon Brown is a capable Prime Minister defeats me. Regardless of who is the government in Westminster after the general election, the country will begin to see the destruction 13 years of a labour government has done. The worst is yet to come. Labour are using every trick in their armoury to suppress the reality of the situation but they won't be able to do that forever.

Ipsos MORI Scotland interviewed 1,006 Scottish voters by telephone between February 18 and 21.

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Dave's Irrelevant Remarks

One day David Cameron may well regret the remarks he made yesterday, at his regular press conference in London, regarding Alex Salmond.

He insisted the only options for voters in any part of the UK was between a Labour or Conservative government.

When he was asked about Mr Salmond's recent comments he stated: "The reason he is making these noises is that he knows that he is actually quite irrelevant in the UK general election.

"People in Scotland will be going to the polls to vote for a British Government and there are two potential outcomes: Gordon Brown and Labour continuing in office or the Conservatives bringing the change the UK needs to see.

"The one outcome there can't be in a British general election is an SNP government.

"Alex Salmond isn't even standing in this election, so he knows he is quite irrelevant in this election.

"He is battling for relevance and trying to say that somehow he is going to have a pivotal role when it is not an election that even involves him. That is why he is saying what he is saying.

"What we will be doing is putting across to Scottish people all the arguments why the British government, the UK government, needs to change direction when this election is held."

Mr Cameron is wrong. Alex Salmond leads the party of government in Scotland and it is also represented in the UK government. Is he suggesting that it is only English MPs who will have influence in the general election?

SNP Tactical Voting writes: More importantly however, it is becoming increasingly clear that Cameron is going to make a right dog's breakfast of trying to find that thin line where he can get away with treating the SNP with 'respect' on one hand and bashing them as 'irrelevant' on the other.

He's not going to make a dog's breakfast, he's made one. He doesn't understand the Scots pysche and has made no serious attempt to do so. A few months ago he was washing his hands of the Calman Report for the foreseeable future. Then he was proclaiming he would work with Alex Salmond and also treat us North Britons to a personal visit now and again and yet, in his desperation to keep parts of England happy, he now implies Scotland doesn't matter.

Come the General Election Mr Cameron may well find his party is, once more, an irrelevance in Scotland and I won't have an ounce of sympathy for him.

For those readers wishing to know the results of Scottish labour's massive reshuffle, Calum Cashley has recorded it here and here at his place. Do have a read. It's pure entertainment (as well as being informative).

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Sir Richard Joins Forces with the Tories

General Sir Richard Dannatt, the former head of the army who repeatedly clashed with ministers over troop levels and equipment in Afghanistan, is to join the Conservatives as a military adviser.

David Cameron will announce in his closing speech to the Tory conference that Dannatt will become a working peer, paving the way for him to serve as a defence minister after the election.

Some Tories expressed unease about the appointment saying it handed an easy victory to labour, which stood accused recently of running a 'smear' campaign against Dannatt.

The tories are planning to axe thousands of jobs within the MoD if they win the next election and they have asked civil servants at the MoD to draw up plans to reduce the cost of running the government department by 25% before 2012.

There are no plans to reduce the number of uninformed personnel to reach the 25% target, but instead sweeping cuts would be applied to the 89,300 strong workforce of civilian staff employed.

I would have preferred Sir Richard to be a cross-bencher if he intends to go to the Lords because that is the tradition for former defence chiefs but of course it's his choice.

The purge of the MoD is more than welcome. Perhaps a trimmed department will be more efficient than the present bloated Whitehall.

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The Leaders' Live Debates

In error I initially entitled this post 'The Live Leaders' Debates' - perhaps that may have been more appropriate!

Gordon Brown has now stated he would condescend to brighten our screens and take part in live television debates with the other leaders. Of course the 'other leaders' are called Dave and Nick with no place reserved for Alex, who quite rightly, has taken umbrage.

The blogosphere has plenty to say about our First Minister's demand to be included with Iain Dale saying 'Alex Salmond thinks he should be in the arena too. How strange. I thought the SNP wanted nothing to do with the Westminster Parliament.' Poor Iain, he doesn't do bitchy too well does he?

A full and equal partner is what another blogger writes and I would agree with that although I'm tempted to agree with the writer of A cunning plan.. too.

Iain MacWhirter has written the transcript suitable for any debate - to save us the inconvenience of tuning in.

There is a serious point here of course. The SNP have been sidelined for years both in the MSM and the UK broadcasting services, although a few of the dead tree press are now recognising the professional and efficient manner in which they are governing Scotland. One in particular springs to mind and that is the independently owned Dundee Courier but neither of the national Scottish papers report without bias (Robbie Dunwoodie excepted).

Therefore I support the SNP's actions because all they're asking for is a fair and equal say in the future of the UK which, in case Westminster politicians have forgotten, includes Scotland.

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Five Things that David Cameron Must Do Next

Tim Montgomerie of conservativehome has detailed five changes David Cameron must make to the conservative party.

The headings are:

1 Unethical MPs must cease to be conservative MPs.

2 Introduce a power of recall for MPs between elections.

3 The leadership must stop hiding behind Commons convention and support calls for the Speaker to go.

4 Put together a plan that will substantially reduce the cost of politics.

5. Put forward a bold plan to renew Britain.

All good ideas with the exception of the last.  Britain is finished and clinging onto the the belief that it can be renewed is wishful thinking.  It would be far better if he assisted by ensuring Scotland has the independence referendum.

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Spicer Humour

According to Sir Michael Spicer the helipad mention is a family joke.  Not so funny this morning is it Sir Michael?  Why are we paying for the upkeep of their gardens anyway? Payments made for garden maintenance should be returned to the public purse immediately.

My thanks to Tory Poppins

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SMART THINKING from the TORIES

After PMQs today William Hague did this video analysis of his part then it was put up on YouTube to maximise the message.  Good idea and should be adopted by others.

Courtesy of PlayPolitic

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FMQs Thursday 22 January 2009

My weekly half hour of entertainment was denied me today.  The BBC decided to continue broadcasting Andy Murray's second match at the Australian Open. Nothing wrong with that decision, in fact a lot right, but it's such a shame the BBC didn't bother to scroll something across the screen at noon as they did later with information about Working Lunch. I digress.

Was it my imagination or was there a definite improvement in labour's rabble-rousing? 

The Rev. (oops) Mr Ian Gray stayed on the subject of knife crime for his line of questions. All sensible questions and given sensible responses by the FM.  Did I hear Mr Gray say Mr Salmond's statistics were true? and furthermore welcome? Maybe the rest he's had since last Thursday has done him good, or is he trying the Mr Friendly rather than Mr Nasty tack, to lull the FM into a false state of security before causing havoc at the final vote of the Budget next week?  We'll have to wait and see.

Aunty Annabel was on fine form praising one of her groupies' decision to Keep the Scottish Banknote.  Alex pointed out the Treasury needed to give certain firm assurances before the proposal would be seriously considered.  With sparkling wit Ms Goldie quoted from a statement Mr Salmond had made, some hundreds of years ago, about the euro - with the killer blow of stating the public may not know the difference between a Scottish euro note with a haggis or Mr Salmond's visage stamped all over it.  Annabel, how could you be so cynical, I'm still shocked.

Lavish Tavish, immaculately groomed as always, concentrated his questions on the Scottish banking industry.  A serious subject given the respect it deserved by both Mr Scott and the FM.  Mr Scott didn't even need his usual 'I'm here' prop today, you know the one the libdems like, the A4 'letter' they wave around at FMQs.

All in all an enjoyable FMQs. Was the more professional behaviour due to last week's accusations backfiring against most of the MSPs, or did the attendance of some heid bummers from various countries cramp their style?

We'll have to wait a whole seven days to find out. 

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My Beliefs

Having spent much of my working life in Europe, when I returned to Scotland in the 80s, I realised how down-trodden and defeated the people appeared to be.

Not that it was obvious initially, but having bought a house in what was a staunch Tory area at the time, so many people were quite happy to accept what the government in Westminster expounded.  Nobody questioned anything, we were all subservient.  At local government level it was much worse.  In my area the majority of councillors were labour (84%) and it had been that way for many years.  They had destroyed the city of my birth and I was angry.  Then again, in Dundee it had always been a staunch labour supporting electorate and I think the people of Dundee expected great things from labour, as they had in the past.

The early 90s rolled on and I realised, with some thorough research, that my country was being sold down the Tay.  The finances didn't add up.  By that I mean the amount of money which was popped into the UK Treasury in comparison with the money returned.  No point in giving URLs for this, but I'm sure readers will find details very easily on google.

Since my eyes were opened, my view is that Scotland could well be independent.  The problem is that the UK government don't think so.  They need Scotland.  Not because of the skills of the people or the contribution they make to the world, but they need Scotland because of our oil and hydro assets.  Of course the fact that Scotland has a third of the coastal line of UK comes into it because, once tidal technologies are perfected, Scotland will be by far in advance of the rest of the UK and Europe.

But it all comes down to money as we see from the latest GERS report.  England would be happy to be shot of the Scots;  in fact the English would wish us well as they've been brainwashed into thinking the Scots are 'given' so much more money than themselves.  The English are delightful folk (give or take exceptions as in any nationality) and would have no problems with us being able to make our own decisions.  Many of my English friends think it only natural that they produce a passport when coming so far north now.

I sympathise with my unionist friends.  They feel the need to cling to the status quo because they know no different.  Fortunately most are 55+ and will die out within 20+ years (that includes me).

It can be hard to accept change but change must be made for Scotland.  We must start to think we're able, education levels must be radically improved (back to what they were in the 50s), confidence must be boosted (that's up to the government) and people must start to think how they can improve themselves - without the constant lies of Westminster.

As a conclusion, I am not a member of the SNP although I support their aims.  I am in accord with policies of some of the other parties - although I do think labour policies (I hear you say what policies) are limp and so dated.

My desire is for my country to be one of the successful small countries in Europe and the world and take full responsibility for our own affairs.

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