Wednesday, 12 May 2010

Who Benefits?



Congratulations to the 21 (8%) of readers who saw foresaw the result. May I suggest a future in the political media awaits you!

What effect will the new ConDem coalition have on Scotland?

The SNP's haste at wishing to talk with labour may be forgiven since they conducted themselves, since Sunday, with more reason and less desperation.

The libdems in Scotland are upset. I've been following Caron and understand her anxiety at the new coalition but surely not all Scottish libdems will carry a grievance if the coalition proves a success. Those who do will possibly vote SNP next year at the Scottish Parliament elections although libdem support in Scotland could increase with their higher profile in Westminster.

Scottish tory voters will, like all parties, have a section of voters who are appalled their party is in coalition with one of the 'opposition'. Will they forgive? Who knows. There are quite a few tories who rather fancy independence and combined with their resentment of the libdems, will play into the hands of the SNP.

What happens to labour in Scotland now? The west is their power base. They have nowhere else. The SNP offered help which was sneeringly swept aside (much in the same way as the libdems approach to them in London by all accounts). They have lost their leader and for the next months their party will be in turmoil as the internal battle commences. Labour and tory leadership contests are never pleasant to observe.

Who will benefit? If they play their cards right the SNP could be the winners with libdems and tory voters coming their way. A few labour voters, unhappy with their new leadership, could drift over too next year but their vote will be a protest one and unreliable in an independence referendum.

In the past few days I did read one commenter who said: 'labour offered the libdems a referendum on the voting system, so surely they can't reject the SNP's proposal for a referendum on independence'. My immediate thought was: 'Aye they can and they probably will. Nothing labour does has the future of Scotland in mind. Their concern is subjective, not objective.'

8 comments:

tris said...

I think SR, in fairness to the SNP they were prepared to do business with Labour because clearly Scotland voted Labour, and the SNP are only interested in Scotland.

Whilst the Liberals did deals with the biggest party in their constituency, the SNP was prepared to do deals with the biggest party in THEIR constituency.

The inclusion of the Liberals in the English government does lend it a little more legitimacy as that government now has 1/6th of the seats in our country, which is not a lot, but considerably more compelling than 1/59th.

subrosa said...

It will be interesting to see how it all pans out at the Scottish elections tris. Whether people forgive the various tactics involved in the past few days.

I don't know any liberals in this area so I can only go by what I read about how concerned they are.

Only time will tell as they say.

Indyanhat said...

Scotland nor Wales will ever become independant, as devolved areas they fit the EU pattern admirably, as countries in their own right they would just complicate the voting issues.
Think carefully if the referendum were held (which is the Scottish Assemblies right to do) it would the have to be put forward to the UK government to see if they would accept it as a bill for Independance to go before the HofC, if they did allow it forward just who in the Hof C do you think would vote for it, surely the Cons would as England is mostly theirs, but the ones who would resist most strongly would be Liebore, as they would then lose their power base for any future hope of taking England back.
So on the one hand the Scots vote slavishly for Liebore in the most important election for a hundred years, and on the other the Liebour party would vote against the Scots in the most important issue (to many of them)
Sound political strategy eh!
Personally I would love to see Independance for both Scotland and Wales (where I live) as I would like to believe that they/we could make a go of it and have our proper National Identities restored to us, but I have to admit what is more likely to happen is a certain xenophobic streak would actually become exaserbated and in time the downfall would become complete, I am not sure any small group ( and both countries have populations of 4-6 million, which is small) could do enough on an international stage to survive, when that time came to be. Here in this county (I think) 46% of the jobs are in the public sectordirectly with another 20% reliant on that sector it doesn't leave a lot of workers making the money to fund it all does it?
Good post there Rosie! interesting insight to my spiritual homeland!

Dubbieside said...

Subrosa

I think that we can pick up votes from disenfranchised Lib Dems, but I would doubt that there are many tory votes up for grabs. They look like they are down to their core vote, and cannot go much lower.

Where there are big gains to be made, I believe, are with the vast majority of the people in Scotland who bought the Labour spin that a vote for Labour would keep the torys out. While it would be wrong to say these votes were wasted, I believe that no vote is ever wasted, what we can say is that these votes were not effective in their original objective.

Given that we now have the torys if not via the back door, more sneaking in the side door, and will have them for five long years, a vote for Labour at Holyrood will be as ineffective there as it was in trying to keep the torys out of Westminster.

P.S. What happens now at Westminster, should SNP/Plyd form an alliance which would make them the second largest opposition party at Westminster and guarantee two questions each week at Prime Ministers Questions?

Billy said...

Indyanhat - only problem with that scenario is that it would not happen.

If Scotland voted for independence then Labour MP's voting against that would result in them losing any support they had left in Scotland.

Plus I think you would find that it would then be an issue at the UN if England voted against the wishes of the Scottish people.

Indyanhat said...

@ Billy, I apreciate what you say and as far as it goes it is true,
But, there are still Liebore (still can't stop myself typing it that way) Mps south of the border and I'm fairly sure that as sick of the scenario as many English voters are the Tories do not want to give Scotland its FULL independance, and who knows what the LDs would vote (they don't seem to know either).

It remains that our countries are locked in the Act of Union and that will not easily be set aside. Even if a referendum on full independance were carried it HAS to be ratified by the full UK Parliament (democratically, fna fna) and I fail to see how or why the UN would have a remit in the issue, and even if it did since when did the UK govt take any notice of the UN (remember Iraq) they do what suits them.
But still I hope that you get your Independance and if you do I may even move 'home' to help build a better brighter future behind a newly erected and fortified WALL!!

verification is 'cluttie' is there not a scottish word like that!

subrosa said...

In many ways I agree with you Indyan, because the Scottish Parliament only arose from an EU directive which Blair could no longer ignore.

Unfortunately the Westminster's plan of dividing England into regions backfired. Possibly because Prescott was in charge.

So England still has the upper hand to be independent. Scotland's choices are exceptionally limited.

Like you say, even though the present Westminster situation would be perfect for a bid for Scottish independence, it won't happen. Political parties have too much to lose in the money they receive. Personal money - not money used for the good of their respective countries.

subrosa said...

The tories in Angus and Perthshire are strong dubbie, but obviously not enough for any impact.

I have no idea how the SNP will play this. Some SNP voters I know object to the constant reference to Plyd who are in a different position to ourselves, but I don't mind it.

It may be a good idea dubbie, if only for the exposure.

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