The campaign to win Scottish independence will be launched on 25 May.
In the past few months I've been asked several times if I think the pro-independence side will win. I've ducked the answer but think it's time I gave my opinion.
I've no wish to be a doom-monger but my feeling is that no, I don't think we will win. Not this time, sadly, but I know the Yes campaign will give it all it's got. We will win eventually and I hope in my lifetime. It takes time for those not interested in political machinations to discover and consider the true facts and that will take longer than a couple of years.
Peter Fraser, the former Angus MP now commonly known as Lord Fraser of Carmyllie, conceded the 'inevitability' of Scottish independence this week. He was right. It is inevitable. He also said: " ... while the SNP might not win the referendum in 2014, the issue would not disappear following a defeat. It will just go on and on until the electorate are ground down into voting for it."
It's a wee bit of an insult to say that people will be 'ground down' rather than become aware, but perhaps I'm being pedantic.
I suspect there are many Scottish tories who feel like Lord Fraser because I know quite a few who will vote Yes in 2014, but will other Scottish tories be brave enough to say Yes in 2014? These tories could well be the voters who decide if the answer is Yes or No in 2014.
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18 comments:
Many English people share your gloom at the thought of a NO vote. I'm an English nationalist and why the Unionists are so keen to retain the Union escapes me. I only wish we English could get a referendum on English independence. With two votes one of us might say YES! We could perhaps leave Wales and N.Ireland to in a mini UK?
It's hard to say either way SR.
The media campaign against independence , headed by BBC Scotland, will be fierce.
I'm not sure if the SNP are serious about independence. Putting it off until the last minute and allowing the Unionist parties to regroup after their hammering at the polls last year is a poor strategy.
Introducing more draconian drink and smoking laws will alienate their core vote. The threat of their 'renewables revolution ' will worry people who want to keep the lights on.
At the end of the day they're all just politicians so will all be in a job whatever way it goes.
I have been a supporter of independence for many a long year.
But as has RMcG has so rightly said above - I no longer have confidence in their social engineering policies; their dogmatic reliance on questionable renewables; and their mistaken desire to lead us all into European subjugation.
And if I now question these policies, how much more do I question the pros and cons of independence under this present SNP administration.
In what should have been the greatest debate in Scotland since 1707 – the silence has been worryingly deafening.
Whilst I may be ready for independence – I fear the present SNP administration is not.
I may find myself having to vote accordingly.
Away with this pessimism.
Out of the scrag end of an autocratic dysfunctional quasi democracy, manipulated by a self serving and - given the present financial idiocy, incompetent establishment the towel of doubt is threatened to be thrown in?
Why? Are we to repeat history and as we did at Derby through the cancer of self doubt and denial of capability snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by squabbling over the details when we have yet to win the final victory over the spoils?
Will our 'social engineering', affiliations, our society and values change if we opt for the sigh of the possible -but maybe tomorrow. They may well change - in fact given the present fumbling strategies of Westminster I'll predict change - only all the changes will be for the worse.
What sort of 'choice' is that?
But maybe it's never been about being too wee,poor or stupid. Maybe it's always been because we're too feart of the big bad bogeyman the establishment keeps telling us it wards off, provided we close our eyes and keep quiet.
So maybe the 'stupid' does come into it.
I have to say, this is disappointing stuff. I think folks need to seperate what is an existential question on Independence from a vote for the SNP which is a question of politics.
Would I vote for the SNP in an independent Scotland? Probably not and its down to those attempts at social engineering, nannying etc.
But to say you might consider voting no because you don't agree with the SNP's policies is really very short sighted indeed.
If there's one thing that will sink the independence referendum, its the Scottish people's inability to tell the difference between the SNP and independence, the two are not the same thing at all. (Although you can be sure the press will continue to have us believe that, they know there is no positive case for the union so they're doing their best to smear the SNP in the hope it'll rub off on the idea of independence.)
I mean to say, the idea that you'd turn down the chance of your own country, escaping from under the crushing weight of a hugely expensive union and a totally unrepresentative system of government because you didn't like the idea that one political party made the minimum price of booze 50p or stuck some wind turbines up.
Its ironic when you think about it, there are some who'd not vote for an option that would make it a lot easier for them to oppose political policies they didn't agree with because they disagreed with the political party who happened to support that very first option but also supported the policies with which they disagreed.
I don't know if that even makes sense. I know what I mean and it doesn't.
Also, I'm not even sure if it is the political argument that will decide this, it really is an existential question for all of us, I think that's born out when you remember there are people who broadly speaking, support a unionist party but would vote yes in 2014.
Anyway, Yes-2014. Its the new logo, I'm getting in first for the royalties. (I don't have a pictoral representation yet, the company that did the olympic logo need not apply ;-)
pa..you've got the wrong end of the stick mate. Most of us will vote for independence but we're just worried that the SNP are making a pigs ear of the whole thing with so many unforced errors.
I see where you're coming from, it was more a general comment I was making in my usual kack-handed manner.
You are right though, they make these small mistakes and they are conflated with the independence debate, the two should be seperate.
I'm not one to applaud action for action sake. Their gas to be a significant benefit for me to support. I'll support the independence vote and vote yes. I'll do that not because I agree whole heartedly with the SNP, I don't.
I'll vote for them to ensure we get independence. Sure it's an uphill struggle since the unionists have a lot if cards to play. The bbc, scare tactics, threats, the MSM in general etc. etc.
The more the unionists attack independence the more they demonstrate how desperately they need to hang onto to Scotland because of the value Scotland brings to the UK.
We, all have to do everything we can to ensure we get independence this time. If we fail it will be buried for years. We will continue to be exploited and our countries riches stolen to support Westminster and the establishment.
Subrosa, I think there is a chance of winning independence in 2014 but it will come down to those who are willing to take a risk in the hope of something better.
It's easy to stay with the status quo because it requires neither thought nor risk but if I'd taken that attitude with my life I'd still be in the same old job I left years ago climbing the walls with boredom.
I'm not sure how the Conservative vote will go. In many ways if conservatism is about standing on your own two feet and self-reliance then you'd think that conservatives would vote yes automatically but conservatism in Scotland appears very much bound to the Union and to dependence on both a UK government and a UK party.
On a side note I get fed up with people yacking on about the SNP and "social engineering". I'm a non-smoker and not having someone light up beside me in a pub or restaurant who then hold the cigarette so the smoke drifts away from their eyes and straight into mine is a blessing. It's one thing I thank Labour for as the party that brought in the smoking ban.
Minimum pricing is another topic which causes a lot of noise and no thought. It's targeted at low end cheap-as-chips cider and own brand spirits. Prices for any drink in pubs, clubs or restaurants won't change and pretty much anything which isn't sold squarely as an own brand loss leader in supermarkets won't change in price either.
There's a handy little table at the end of this Guardian piece which does a before and after price comparison for minimum pricing.
I'm trying not to be gloomy Independent England, but the way the present Scottish government is legislating I can't help but think they're going down the wrong road.
That would be a good idea.
It is hard RM but the way things are heading, I think people will be worried we'll end up as the most legislated country in Europe at this rate. Doesn't exactly make folk feel confidence.
Your last sentence is correct.
The silence is deafening JRB and I just hope on the 24 they have some serious answers to questions.
Ooops Crinkly, I'm not usually pessimistic and like JRB I have supported independence for many years.
I wouldn't say many are feart but they certainly feel uninformed. Two years isn't enough time to inform them particularly when the world changes these days so quickly.
You've hit one of the SNP's problems on the head pa_broon. Many folk associate independence only with the SNP and forget about the other parties which support it such as the Greens.
I wouldn't vote No because I disagree with SNP policies and I'm sure I will vote Yes.
Ah I see you've said, more eloquently, what I mean.
I'll vote for them to ensure independence too TT. I doubt if it will get buried for many years if the answer isn't Yes. I'm in agreement with Carmylie about that.
I think the tories are the most divided party about independence Dug.
It's not only the SNP who are socially engineering the population, most countries are at it.
But, when you look closely at some of their policies - take the council tax freeze. It doesn't help the poorest because the poorest don't pay council tax. But it claims to help those worst off.
Glad to hear you frequent pubs now as much as you did (or maybe even more?) before the smoking ban.
We'll have to wait and see just how the minimum price legislation pans out. I'll keep a copy of the Guardian's comparison and see the true prices in 6 months time after the law comes into forces next April.
Oh you mean it's an EU-type referendum, where you have to keep on voting until you give the right answer?
Colour me surprised.
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