The Demise Of Scottish Labour?

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Above is a chart of all Labour’s seats in Scotland, by their majorities over the SNP.  The first thing you notice is how few traditional Labour V SNP marginals there are. Ochil and South Perthshire, with a Labour majority of 10% over the SNP, is the only seat that would be regarded as a realistic target under ordinary circumstances.

These are not ordinary circumstances.  The dotted line across the chart shows the Labour>SNP swing that has been suggested by the four Scottish opinion polls so far this year. As you can see it’s enough for the SNP to take the large majority of Labour’s Scottish seats.

Below is a graph showing the LibDem majorities over the SNP.

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Lord Ashcroft has published a poll which concentrates on Labour held seats in those areas that voted Yes in the referendum, plus two high profile LibDem seats - both of which show the SNP ahead, returning Alex Salmond to Westminster in Gordon and ousting Danny Alexander).

The full details of Lord Ashcroft’s poll is available here.

I’ve never taken polls too seriously, but Lord Ashcroft’s has to be one of the most detailed.  

How do Labour handle such news?  By resurrecting Gordon Brown!  No sniggering now, although I sniggered myself when I saw the headline ‘secret weapon’.

Scots can be fickle when deciding which party deserves their vote but I doubt if many - with the exception of the die hard Labourites - will listen to a word Mr Brown utters.  They will remember The Vow that wasn’t a vow at all within hours of the referendum result. Older voters will remember the complacency with which Labour has governed Scotland for 40 years.

Will May’s general election see the demise of Scottish Labour? I sincerely hope so.

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