Here We Go Again

Gaddafi is dead or is he? Cries of liberation ring through the streets yet there were those who had a good life in Gaddafi's Libya.  Meanwhile Libya's interm rulers have announced that the body of Colonel Gaddafi has been buried.  His remains were taken to a secret location in the desert and only four witnesses were present.  The secrecy and mystery about his death have many in the Middle East - and a few here - questioning if what has been done is right.

Yesterday the Libyans, who have ignored the water shortages and tribal conflict, were shocked by the interm government's declaration that Sharia Law would dominate.  Certainly the US and Britain didn't expect this and I shouldn't think France - having been part of the 'destroy Gaddafi' project - did either.

I think the UK were far too quick in becoming involved with the Libyan conflict.  It was the same with Iraq.  We gave no consideration to the results of our intrusion.  Our involvement in destroying Gaddafi is nothing more than disgraceful, especially since so many of our leaders brought him 'on-side' in recent years. Now we're beginning to see the result of assisting Libyans free themselves from dictatorship with the victors imposing Sharia Law.

When Scotland is independent then I'm sure - I hope it's not naivety - that it will not become involved in the affairs of other countries.

Tweet

A Sickening Performance From the Prime Minister

Another British solder was killed On Wednesday in the Afghan war. The serviceman, from the 1st Battalion The Rifles, was killed by a gunshot wound sustained in the village of Haji Khodin Nazar, in the Nahr-e Saraj district of Helmand province.

His death takes the number of British troops who have died since the war in Afghanistan began to 381.

But the death of another soldier means nothing to politicians, especially when they can pose on the world stage as 'saviours'.

David Cameron, along with Sarkozy, rushed to Libya to claim credit for the ousting of Gaddafi.  Unfortunately, Gaddafi's still hanging around in some invisible abode, but that's of little concern to the two leaders who, according to the Spiegel, revelled in their one day appearance in the war torn country as the saviours of the Libyans.

Cameron went as far as to offer to bring the worst medical cases to British hospitals if Libya paid the transport.  My knowledge of Libya is limited, but I am aware the standards of their education and medical care under Gaddafi was very possibly far superior to what we can attain these days in the UK.  Wouldn't it have been far more sensible for the Prime Minister to offer medical equipment which would assist in the Libyans once again achieving their excellent standards of medical care rather than bringing a few seriously injured here for PR reasons?

The MoD has estimated the cost of the first six months of British involvement in Libya was £260 million (much under-estimated in my view) and France estimated their operations had cost €1 million a day (much more realisitic).

For all Cameron's sickening fawning over the new Libyan officials, it was Sarkozy who was regarded as 'the best man in the world' by the rebels.  Our chief salesman, from the little I saw on television, over-egged his determination to be first in line for any lucrative oil deals.

It very easily could have been so different if Gaddafi had played a different hand and Cameron's relief at deciding to take action against Gaddafi is evident.  It could have gone so wrong.  Like Afghanistan.

Tweet

Lessons Never Learned

The photograph is Captain Lisa Jade Head, 29, of Huddersfield, who was an officer in the 11 Explosive Ordnance Disposal Regiment, Royal Logistics Corps.

She is dead.  She was seriously injured by an explosion while clearing IEDs in Helmand province, Afghanistan.

Cpt Head was taken immediately to Camp Bastion Military Hospital then medivaced to Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, where she died of her injuries on Tuesday.  Her death takes the number of British military personnel killed in the Afghanistan war to 364. She is the sixth member of the regiment to be killed by these explosives.

Some may say clearing IEDs is not a job for a woman.  I disagree. Women are just as capable of clearing IEDs as men.  But why aren't we using a system such as the one suggested by this blogger?

Where I do disagree with our lords and masters is that we should not be in Afghanistan.  The Afghanis' problems are for them to resolve and not for us to inflict our interpretation of democracy upon them.  We should be using our influence to highlight the atrocities of female genital mutilation, forced marriages, ritual killings - but these issues will never be solved by the gun anywhere in the world.

The Taliban are shrewd and not primitive warriors.  They understand the mentality and characters of their countrymen, something we will never learn in a war situation.  IEDs are there to blow up 'the enemy' as the Taliban see us as invaders.  If the west withdrew from this hell-hole, the placing of IEDs would no longer be required and civilians would be safer.

I've written much over the past couple of years about this war and am aware I've repeated myself on many occasions.  I've listened to our politicians say 'lessons will be learned' but they never are.  If they had been then we wouldn't be involved in Libya's internal uprisings.  But we are and day by day David Cameron seem immerse us more and more into their civil war.

As yet we've seen little retaliation for our involvement in Afghanistan, but if Gaddafi manages to stay in power - and it's looking as if he has as strong a hold as ever - his revenge will be speedy and brutal.  Let's not forget we are now his main enemy, along with the US, rather than his best friend: our security has been threatened since the Iraq war, but we're in far more danger now.

My condolences to the family and friends of Cpt Head.  May they be supported by each other in their grief.

Tweet

Libya: The Longer The Fighting The Better?

Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya is an expert in Middle Eastern and Central Asian affairs. He believes the European economy is being remodeled as the EU drives itself further into the orbit of the US and backs away from Russia, which, he says, is an actual dependable and stable form of energy for Europe.

Tweet

Operation Odyssey Dawn

Serving Thanksgiving dinner 

to staff at Ramstein

As the US attempts to display its democratic credential and conveys the false impression that it has joined the Arab masses by attacking the one country in the entire region where a democratic uprising will not jeopardise US interests, I thought Major General Margaret H Woodward, who has been the Commander of the 17th Air Force and US Air Forces Africa at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany since June 2010, may interest those of you who enjoy detail.

The command serves as the air component for US Africa Command and led the military operation against the Gaddafi regime.  The Spiegel has published an interesting interview with this capable lady.

Has the 'transfer' of power to NATO taken the heat off Obama?  I think not.  NATO is dominated by the US militarily and politically and the US continues to 'runs the show that is taking over running the show'.

While Britain and France continue to berate other NATO countries for not contributing hardware to the no-fly zone operation, they are but cogs in the wheel.

US NATO did not launch a war against Libya as a humanitarian gesture.  If/when it removes the Gaddafi family from leadership and installs a replacement, the allied military coalition will exercise decisive influence for many years to come, especially in oil concessions, privatizations and building contracts that enhance multinational corporations, world organisations and more.

Saving civilian lives is well down the list.

Tweet

When Will William Hague Understand Not Every Country Wants War

William Hague is making a spectacular hash of his ministerial remit as Foreign Secretary, although he's not quite in the league of Nick Clegg or David Cameron - yet.

Last week it was reported Moussa Koussa had been interviewed, with his agreement, by Scottish police investigating the Lockerbie bombing because prosecutors believe he has information on the 1988 terrorist attack.  It is understood he was the chief of Libyan intelligence at the time.  Is there a possibility that Koussa has given enough information to reopen the case?  Probably not.

At the time of Koussa's defection William Hague insisted Koussa hadn't chosen Britain on the back of any plea bargain and he 'is not being offered immunity from British or international justice'.

What we do know is that Koussa isn't a pleasant person and he will have weighed up the likely outcomes prior to making his momentous decision to escape the Gaddafi regime.  Either he is convinced that Gaddafi will lose the civil war or he believes he is in a position to cut some kind of deal.

British foreign policy is remarkably adept at overlooking the misdeeds of prominent politicians where there is reason to do so.  That's how come Valentine Strasser, former head of the National Provisional Ruling Council in Sierra Leone, was allowed to study law at Warwick University and how a Spanish request for the extradition of General Pinochet was rejected on medical grounds, leaving the mass murdered free to return to Chile.

Koussa is now in Quatar where he is expected to meet with Libyan opposition representatives. Mr Haig saw the trip as an opportunity for Koussa to deepen his ties with the Libyan rebel opposition umbrella group, the transitional or interim National Council which is based in Benghazi.

Mr Haig is also in Quatar complaining that NATO countries aren't pulling their weight in the implementation of the no-fly zone over Libya. He doesn't yet understand that many countries have no desire to be pulled into another war.

Why Haig is pandering to Koussa is anyone's guess but I would agree with this Lockerbie victim's relative. Haig may well find that Koussa is a great deal smarter than himself.  Anyone who can survive 30 years within the close confines of Gaddafi's court could only be described as Machiavellian.

If Koussa was looking for a country where pragmatism generally overrules all other considerations, his private jet undoubtedly landed in the right place - with William Haig's full agreement.

Richard isn't happy either.

Tweet

No Sympathy From Cameron But Obama Knows What Side His Bread's Buttered On

Following the review in October, the MoD said it would reduce the number of military personnel by 17,000 over four years: 7,000 from the army and 5,000 each from the Navy and RAF.

Yesterday the MoD announced the numbers to be cut from Army and Navy personnel: both must lose 5,000 and 3,3000 respectively.  The Gurkhas are to be among the first victims of the Army's redundancy programme with around 150 troops facing the  end of their military careers. Money needs to be saved now that Gurkhas can now serve 22 years rather than the 15 to which they were previously restricted.

The MoD said that 1,000 soldiers had been told they would be redundant by September and 1,600 Royal Navy personnel were informed they too would lose their jobs.  In the Army alone it is expected that around half the redundancies will be compulsory.

The RAF listed its figures a month ago and although yesterday the Air Chief Marshall says forces will be in Libya for at least six months, there would appear to be little sympathy from the MoD or David Cameron.

Why has our involvement in the no-fly zone over Libya suddenly extended to a mid-term operation?  Because Barack Obama has pulled the US military out.  There are other factors of course but some of them have to do with the development of the situation in Libya itself, with others to do with the complicated relations between the US and its Europeans NATO allies.  But what is more important for Obama is that the war in Libya has a direct impact on internal US politics and bears directly on his 2012 prospects.  This week it's expected he will announce he intends to run for a second term.

Some say as time passes there are more and more indications that the Libyan rebels are not fighting for democracy and human rights as they were depicted at the beginning the campaign and intelligence reports advise of flickers about the presence of al-Qaeda and Hezbollah members among the anti-Gaddafi forces.  I'm sure few people in the UK will be surprised at that news.

Obama has a balancing act to do as no one in Washington would be happy to see Al Qaeda or the like taking the upper hand in Libya, yet Washington presently sees the situation as a stalemate and two US warships, of the initial eleven, have already been withdrawn. 90 US jets have ceased operating in Libyan airspace leaving only 143, (two-thirds of the initial warplanes), to impose the no-fly zone.  France and Britain are expected to carry the bulk of the load now the US jets are grounded with other NATO countries contributing in a smaller way, yet we don't have adequate hardware or, if the Air Chief Marshall is to be believed, enough manpower.

Yet David Cameron will continue to chop away and be happy to lose highly skilled military personnel in his quest to 'save' money.  The safety of the people of these islands has no part to play in his plans.  At least we know, but we've known that since Blair proclaimed war on Iraq.

Tweet

Cameron May Rue His Hasty Decision

On Monday night ComRes released the results of a poll for ITV News suggesting that 53% of voters think military action in Libya is an unnecessary risk. I wonder if that number will increase since William Hague's statement in the House of Commons at lunchtime.

David Cameron's debate on Monday was nothing more than procedure and an ego-boosting exercise. What PM in the past has sent out troops to war without the consent of parliament, with the feeble excuse that they didn't have time to consult?  He achieved his goal with 544 MPs in agreement with him and 13 against. Where were the missing 17%? Did your MP ask your opinion?  So many were complacent in their decision making purely on the grounds of the UN resolution.  John Redwood was one MP who did give careful consideration to all contributions to the debate.  I commend him.

This lunchtime it was obvious from Hague's statement that the UK government intend to extend our participation in this war; possibly to the use of ground troops, although he carefully added 'not at the moment' in his statement.  According to Hague the decision lies with NATO who will be required to lead the invasion, because the US has categorically refused to be in charge.  They know Americans would not be sympathetic to their government involving themselves in the invasion of another Muslim country.

Our politicians have deployed our air force in a war where there is no one in charge. NATO is deadlocked by internal disputes so it is not in charge. The United Nations Security Council, which only gave enough authority to enforce a no-fly zone, is not in charge of this now far more aggressive campaign.  The Arab League, which withdrew support within hours of granting it, is certainly not in change and France is calling for a 'steering committee', although it's not clear who would lead it or how it would delegate authority between the Western  powers.  Not only is no one in charge, no one wants to be and no one has any idea who to appoint.

What is causing the confusion?  The US, France and Italy are all coming to Libya with what look to be very different goals, resulting in conduction different missions in different ways. It's said, by those who study North African politics, that France is attempting to make up for supporting the Tunisian dictator Ben Ali instead of giving support to those who desired democracy.

Perhaps most of all, no Western power wants to lead the intervention because that would be to implicitly lead the war against Gaddafi and for that war to succeed it must remain led by the Libyan people.  If led by the outside it becomes regime change and that's something which has resulted in horrifyingly disastrous results.

We're once again involved in a war which has no structure, no proposed end-game and no majority support from our people.  The rebels have no established leader who is both legitimate and competent enough and until someone steps into the leadership role, or until a multinational body such as NATO can organise itself into taking charge, this war will continue without a leader.  But, leader or no, it will certainly continue and David Cameron is quite determined the UK plays a prominent role.

William Hague didn't mention the deaths, in Afghanistan yesterday, of two soldiers from the 1st Battalion Irish Guards although he did condemn the death of a British citizen in Jerusalem.  Was it too much for him during his declaration that our participation in the war on Libya will continue, or did he not wish to draw attention to one of the horrific costs of war - 362 UK military lost lives in a conflict which has been running 10 years?

Germany may yet prove to to have made the right decision.  Libya's war can only be won by their own people.  Already we are hearing repercussions here, making the UK less safe than ever.  Cameron's hasty decision may cost far more lives than those of civilians in Libya.

Tweet

Operation Ellamy and That Unspeakable Three Letter Word

Yesterday a serviceman died in the Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham. Belonging to the 2nd Battalion, the Parachute Regiment, he was blown up by an IED in Helmand province on Wednesday and after treatment at Camp Bastion's military hospital, he was medevaced back to the UK.  His family were with him when he died.

360 military personnel have died in the Afghanistan war and Dave Cameron announced yesterday Britain is now at war with Libya.  Of course few in the media mention the 'war' word; conflict, uprising and combat are used to describe the reason for the presence of our armed forces in Afghanistan, but never war.

The Archbishop chronicles the PM as a 'statesman' for being the first to call for the enforcement of a no-fly zone and that the UN resolution 'is in a sense a diplomatic triumph for the Prime Minister...'.  There is nothing statesmanlike about a PM who has legislated for the redundancy of 100 trainee pilots and thousands of other military personnel - not to mention the military hardware he's having scrapped and the Scottish RAF bases he intends to close - yet he expects our armed forces to take a leading role in this new war. In recent months David Cameron was encouraging the sale of weapons to Gaddafi and he was content to do oil deals.  The fact that Gaddafi was a brutal dictator didn't deter him.

As for his 'diplomatic triumph', only two-thirds of the UN voted for the resolution; not exactly a triumph. That suggests to me that the international community is not united in this operation, especially if it drags on.  The UN Resolution 1973 (2011) leaves room for interpretation - a normal practice - but what does 'all necessary means' mean and what is the definition of 'occupation'?

Why are our military included in the aerial intervention of Libya?  I have no doubt those who favour it genuinely want to save civilians from a brutal regime, but the murder of Yvonne Fletcher, the Lockerbie tragedy and the discovery that Gaddafi had been supplying arms to the IRA were certainly incidents when a case could have been made for military intervention and justifiably so.  No doubt we will find out in due course.

Surely, if the Arab League nations do take part, it will be noticed that they will be supporting democracy abroad but not tolerating it at home.  It will be interesting to see what role, if any, Egypt and Tunisia decide to fulfil.

It's also hard to understand why, if state oppression triggers UK military intervention, why only Libya and not Bahrain?

Gaddafi has called the UN's bluff by announcing a cease fire.  Good timing.  Time to move his forces, reorganise his logistics and get his military into built up areas. A smart child could have made that prediction.

All I can hope for is a speedy conclusion to this war but, with our politicians' distinct lack of forward planning, my concern is for the 'after'.  Helping the introduction of democracy could turn out to be a thankless task. Like Afghanistan.  But we've now declared which side we support in a civil war so all we can do is wish those involved the very best of luck.

Update:  Although China abstained from the resolution it is contributing aid to Egypt and Tunisia.

Tweet

Detrimental Diplomacy

This is a telephone conversation between the British ambassador, Richard Northern MBE, in Tripoli and the senior Benghazi rebel politician Mustafa Abdel-Jalil about the presence of around 8 SAS troops who were captured near Benghazi and were freed late yesterday.  They were taken to Malta aboard the HMS Cumberland which faces decommissioning but is playing a key role in the evacuations from Benghazi.

The ambassador tells Abdel-Jalil they were there as an advance party to 'liaise with the National Council' and to ensure there was a hotel where the main group could stay when they arrived.  When told by Abdel-Jalil that they made a big mistake arriving by helicopter in an open area, the ambassador says, most unconvincingly, he had 'no idea how they were coming'.

Did he really think his absurd twitterings would be believed? It was a botched job. Does he understand the damage which could be caused by this poorly planned operation?  It's very probable Gaddafi will now use this incident against the rebel politicians on the premise that they are associating with British forces.

Britain's behaviour with regard to the Libyan unrest is far below the standard the people of this country have come to expect.  David Cameron talks about air strikes when we have no planes. A very serviceable aircraft carrier, the Arc Royal, is being broken up for scrap. Fifty senior military personnel, politicians and academics have written to the PM - although many of them were part of the problem - urging a rethink of the government's SDSR, while the MoD announced on Saturday that 200 troops from the Black Watch (3rd Battalion of the Royal Regiment of Scotland), are on standby for Libyan aid deployment.

Some reports indicate a massive build up of US naval forces, the UK and others, off the coast of Libya so intervention in the internal affairs of the country is already underway and the longer the civil war continues the greater the odds that the West will escalate its intervention, especially if it looks like Gaddafi can succeed in crushing the opposition.

None of this bodes well for Britain.  We have a military which is being torn apart yet our PM, like his predecessor, refuses to acknowledge we can no longer deploy as an independent military.  Whilst I acknowledge we must cut our cloth according to our means, our security is our most important public service and must be funded accordingly.

A quote from Global Researcher with which I concur:

And a sign where this all heading can be gleaned from the following:

"[T]he United States has demanded the UN Security Council (UNSC) to remove the provisions of charging mercenaries with war crimes in the killing of Libyan civilians."

Just in case no doubt some of its own mercenaries get caught. It's a replay of the US position over the use of mercenaries in Iraq where one of the first acts of overlord Bremer was to pass a 'law' to make it impossible to prosecute 'private contractors' for their actions.

Iraq, Afghanistan and now Libya: all conflicts which have or will make these islands less secure than ever.  The US have already started their interference.  No doubt we shall follow.

Tweet

Government By Blackberry

In the past seven days the Westminster government has been severely criticised over their handling of the evacuation of British nationals from Libya.

The MSM and the 24-hour drip feed of news provided by Sky and the BBC have delighted in bringing angry Brits, with their stories of abandonment by the UK government, to our living rooms.

From what I've seen on television, I think the UK government has done a reasonable job considering the PM and deputy were out of the country, but more about that later.  The initial hesitation may have been attributed to this.

Anyone going to work or live in a country like Libya must know the risks involved. Many go because they're paid more than they would be in the UK and if they stay out of the UK enough days each year, they do not have to pay UK taxes.  I have no problem with that because it's their choice.

What I do have a problem with is some Brits expecting immediate rescue when - with the exception of those in the desert - they could have left the country a week ago as civilian flights were still operating to a reasonable schedule and the UK also chartered aircraft.  Many decided to disregard the situation until the middle of the week when they found Tripoli airport in chaos with thousands desperate to leave and civilian flights few and far between.

"It's the UK government's fault," was a popular response in the media.  I disagree.  When anyone decides to go abroad, for whatever reason, they must take responsibility for their own health and safety.  In serious emergency the British Embassy may be able to help but it's not always possible.  In the past couple of days Libya has become a serious emergency and, if the words of those who have successfully escaped the country, the Embassy staff have done everything in their power to ensure they were safely escorted to the port/airport.  I've yet to hear a word of criticism against anyone connected with the evacuation by an evacuee.  Neither have I heard any criticism of BP who also accepted other nationalities when  space was available on their flights to Malta.

It is unfortunate some oil workers' families, here in the UK, decided to go public with their concerns for their loved one's safety because they also gave too much information to the interviewer.  Those who work in middle east oil fields are well protected by guards employed by the relevant company. Looting from local crooks is not unknown and the guards and workers do their best to keep a good relationship with the host nation. After William Hague's plea to oil workers to let the Foreign Office know where they were, it was obvious to anyone listening that their safety was in doubt and action was being considered.

Most are very acquaint with survival skills but these were reduced when one of their escape routes, through the desert, was blocked. Too much information was being provided on news channels which was putting any rescue attempt in jeopardy.  Thankfully late yesterday around 150 British and other foreign nationals were airlifted safely to Malta by the British military.  Another 300 await rescue.

The media must be told to be more responsible. Gaddafi's henchmen didn't need to spend much time finding out where the UK's special forces were gathered. There is a fine line between news and news which must be withheld from the public because it would endanger the lives of others.  The line was crossed a few times this past week.

But David Cameron certainly didn't provide an acceptable level of leadership this week.  Since the coalition was formed I've occasionally questioned why he was giving Nick Clegg so much exposure in the media and wondered if he was hoping Mr Clegg would eventually flounder.  Nick Clegg did so last week - spectacularly, but David Cameron was unable to capitalise on it.  Why?  For some strange reason he allowed Mr Clegg to trot off on a skiing holiday in the same week the middle east was in uproar and he was to jet around parts of it in an effort to boost the sales of his business entourage. Such planning is not permitted in Ruralshire and certainly it was poor diary organisation from No 10.

It escapes my memory whether it was David Cameron or Nick Clegg who was reported to have said there was no necessity for the PM or his deputy to physically be in the country because communications equipment was excellent these days. The Blackberry was mentioned.  Does this show that Britain's PM and other senior politicians are purely figureheads these days or has it always been so and it's only due to modern communication systems, such as the Blackberry, that their hollowness has been revealed?

Tweet

Shame on Gaddafi

This is a still of pictures shown on our broadcasting services tonight of Al Megrahi, the Lockerbie bomber, being 'introduced' to African leaders. A propaganda news item obviously ordered by the head of government.

I found the televising of the event sickening to say the least. Al Megrahi has allowed himself to be used as a monkey while the organ grinder, Gaddafi, continues to display him as some kind of trophy. Scotland's Justice Minister released him on compassionate grounds. Libya doesn't seem to understand the meaning of compassion or have any respect for the political meaning of the release.

Gaddafi has shown the world his true character in this matter, but we mustn't mention it must we? That would be putting our all-important trade links with Libya at risk. Speak about the tail wagging the dog ...

Tweet

The Reverberations

'Bomber row could bring down Scots government' is the headline in the Sunday Post this morning.

Parliament is to be recalled tomorrow and Kenny MacAskill will make a statement plus answer questions from MSPs.

However, according to Campbell Gunn, opposition leaders are now understood to be seriously considering calling a vote on the issue, although no vote is scheduled for the end of the session and opposition leaders will wait until it is over before deciding whether to call one.

The likelihood is this would be a vote of 'no confidence' in Mr MacAskill following the full return of Parliament after the end of recess, next week. In that cast Alex Salmond would consider it a vote of no confidence in his Government, as he cannot be put in the position where opposition parties say who can and who cannot be members of his ministerial team.

All three main opposition parties opposed Mr MacAskill's decision so the 47 SNP MSPs would be heavily outnumbered in any vote.

Jack McConnell and Ian Gray bestowed their verbal contributions to the argument.

Whilst the reverberations continue the Prime Minister enjoys the seclusion of his well guarded home in the Kingdom of Fife confident that his new mantra 'silence is golden' will pay off.

Since I starting writing this there have been some good posts published on the same subject. They can be read here, here and here.

Tweet