It bases its purchasing and transmission commitments upon many variables, perhaps the most important being the weather.
The country's energy supply, and, reliable security-of-supply therefore depends upon the accuracy of weather forecasts.
This is particularly important for the Nation's gas supply because sufficient gas has to have been previously committed to storage; and, contracted to be withdrawn from storage [whilst the distribution system remains topped-up].
Unlike electrical power supplies which can be temporarily interrupted & then switched back on again, the Gas Transmission System MUST remain pressurised.
Perhaps the organisation which was responsible for those weather predictions ought to invest in a more accurate computational model?
Met Office Global long-range probability maps [Enter 'Issued' - Oct 2010; 'Period' - 2-4 months; 'Region' - Europe to see how warm they thought it'd be.]
Because that forecast also heavily influenced local authority road-salt purchasing & storage decisions, it perhaps explains why so many councils were 'unprepared' for the prolonged snow + ice conditions.
A guest post by Joe Public.