Wednesday, 17 February 2010

Another Falklands War on the Cards?



The Argentinians seem hell bent on another conflict.  It has declared it is taking control over all shipping between its coast and the Falklands which, in effect, awards itself the power to blockade the disputed islands.

Why is Argentina so interested in a miniscule British colony?

According to a decree issued by President Kirchner last night, all ships sailing through the waters claimed by Argentia must hold a permit.  The measure seems likely to deepen a row over conflicting claims to oil beds lying inside the Falklands' territorial waters.

Daniel Hamilton says the decree contravenes international law.  So why are the Argentinian government pushing the issue?  This may explain it.

38 comments:

Quiet_Man said...

Ah, pretty much the same reason as the last time, a desperately unpopular government sabre rattling to gain some popularity at home.


Wonder what the Argentinian excuse is though ;-)

Events dear boy, events said...

This has been brewing for sometime. Why do you think it has been pushed up the news agenda now?

I wouldn't get over excited. We have no troops, no money and Obama would probably say no.

But, then again, with Brown you never know.

CrazyDaisy said...

SR,

2 weeks ago 1 Argentine corvette was shadowing a French TG transitting the FICZ, a UK ship intercepted the Argentine Naval vessel to say "Hello" they shat bricks on VHF prior to fucking off over the horizon.

Let's cut the MSM shit out of this - facts - Argentina is in no position to invade the Falklands. The Falkland Islanders also employ the UN edict " they have the right to self determination"

The UK is ready in all respects to answer The Argentine question, furthermore the UK is so battle hardened they would be foolhardy to rattle sabers farless step ashore.

There will be no War, it will be a drive by shouting in the UN

period, My words are irrefutable so argue away

CD

CrazyDaisy said...

Argentina may state they are controlling the high seas, but outside 12 nautical miles they are in control of jackshit.

Argentina have the most lame claim over Las Malvinas = bad vines in translation. Anyway last Sunday in the museum I learned first hand how shite the claim was - pretty tenuous if u ask me and I ken my stuff.

So where are we at? Argentina is up shit creek 27 years on and the Kirchners continue to try and distract the population with War despite the dire financial situation the nation finds itself in.

Argentina has not renewed it's Equipment in 30 years since the invasion.

The Forces we have on island will prevent any incursion within airspace and TTW.

FIG and HE are well trained, bring it on,


CD
Idiota!

Alex Porter said...

Quiet_Man said...
Ah, pretty much the same reason as the last time, a desperately unpopular government sabre rattling to gain some popularity at home.

And Argentina is not much better. Except this time the Argies might not be so alone. I would imagine Chavez, Brazil, the Chinese, Russia are all on the phone to one another. South America is geo-political in a big way right now. This is definately not as simple as the last time, at least I know that!

CrazyDaisy said...

True, but unlikely Dude

Jess The Dog said...

I doubt it.

The UK FI garrison is far more resilient than in 1982. Fast jet Typhoons with radar early warning, plus an infantry company. Enough to repel any attack at least until an airbridge was established for reinforcements.

Plenty of reasons to be worried though. RN has been cut to the bone, and the Argentinian Air Force has invested in upgraded Skyhawks with radars, while the Fleet Air Arm has lost its radar-fitted FA-2 Sea Harriers.

So it is unlikely, but too many weaknesses on our own part. If they attacked during Happy Hour we would be screwed!

http://jess-the-dog.blogspot.com/2010/02/second-falklands-war.html

Jess The Dog said...

Navy may be slashed to the bone, but the Submarine Service is still pride of the Fleet. Just send a sub down (assuming there isn't one already) for a morale boosting visit (not for the crew) to Stanley (and somewhere nice on the home leg to cheer up the crew).

Jess The Dog said...

"So where are we at? Argentina is up shit creek 27 years on and the Kirchners continue to try and distract the population with War despite the dire financial situation the nation finds itself in."

So are we...delete "the Kirchners", insert "Brown"!

VotR said...

Here we go, any excuse by Labour to avoid a general election using emergency powers amidst deliberate provocation against Argentina.

Pathetic.

John Pickworth said...

I know our navy has seen better days but the Argentinian forces are in a far worse shape.

I'll wager each side makes a few diplomatic noises and then Argentina is promised a nice new oil terminal or something?

subrosa said...

I would go along with that QM,

subrosa said...

No, we never know Howard. The man will do anything for self-promotion.

subrosa said...

Now there speaks the voice of experience. Thanks CD.

The MSM have this oil business rumbling away in the background at times but without much fact.

Now we're up to date.

subrosa said...

In many ways it's sad the Falklands has oil. So much war just because of it.

Events dear boy, events said...

Concentrate on the Dubai saga. This could turn out to be a little embarrassing to say the least.

subrosa said...

More expert advice and a super link. Thanks Jess.

subrosa said...

Surely Brown wouldn't stoop that low VotR. Then again, he'll stop at nothing to keep the keys of No 10.

subrosa said...

John, to be honest I wouldn't know. Maybe CD or Jess who know the area would be able to tell you.

Hythlodaeus said...

One word Subrosa: Oil.

If the exploration rig that's out there just now finds decent amounts, that could be several hundred billion for the UK treasury over the next few decades, which is probably needed more in Argentina, which is still a developing country.

We also don't have much come back if Argentina did decided to invade again...after all, we might have helped America do something similar recently...

I doubt it'll come to blows however. It'll just be sabre rattling to let the UK know that Argentina wants in on the oil bounty as well. Might as well get their help with it really.

subrosa said...

Aye you're right Hythlodaeus, oil it is. It will be interesting to see what the exploration rig finds as it's been long awaited.

You suggest compromise. I doubt if that word is in our present leader's vocabulary.

banned said...

Probably the Argentines chancing a punt based on the RAF being knackered, the Navy run down and the Army distracted elsewhere.
So what if we do have nuclear subs, would we nuke Buenos Aires for the sake of Port Stanley?

Surreptitious Evil said...

@banned. You are confusing nuclear powered (Trafalgar-class) attack subs, which would use Harpoon missiles or Spearfish torpedos to sink Argentinian ships, or TLAM to attack Argentinian military installations on shore, with the (Vanguard-class) ballistic missile subs.

No, we wouldn't nuke Argentina (unless they used WMD - which they don't have, not even their polo team counts).

As the Falklands isn't part of the UK (it is a British Overseas Territory - like Gib or Bermuda), it would be quite interesting to see what the spilt between the FI government and No1 Horse Guards would be on taxing any find. I suspect most would go to the islanders (although we might then start asking for a contribution towards the garrison costs!)

subrosa said...

Banned Surreptitious Evil has your answer below.

Alex Porter said...

The Chinese have energy deals with Brazil and even Canada to the annoyance of the US. Chavez used to be chairman of OPEC and understands oil politics extremely well. He's been deliberately defying the US and has pulled in various South American countries. The Yanks are indulging in 'power projection' all over the place with bases in Columbia and they've now hijacked Haiti (which has oil too). Bush has Chavez kidnapped in a failed coup a few years ago. Venezuela was plan B when the Arabs flexed their muscles and he remembered that - had soldiers concealed under the floor of the presidential palace and the plotters surrendered, lol.

The Argies are mightily pissed off about the IMF and World Bank which is 51% owned by the US Treasury. They screwed the country and they tried the same thing in Brazil which is now firm friends with Russia, India and China.

Could this be a new front opening up in the cold war between the US and China? It would take the heat off Afghanistan which borders both China and Russia...

Just a thought.

Hythlodaeus said...

Subrosa - He'd better learn compromise fast ;) I doubt there is any way we could fight two wars in addition to our normal peace keeping endeavours elsewhere.

Given time, America, Brazil or another suitable mediator will step in and hopefully sort it out.

CrazyDaisy said...

SR

The FIG intend paying for defence if/when oil is found. Although it will be 3-5 years after oil is found before full scale production can begin.

Jess

Aye insert calamity broon for Kirchner.

One things for sure Whitehall will try and feck them i
over.

Alex Porter said...

I read there was 60 billion barrels. The rights have been sold already and that means empire Britain kicks in with lots of advice from the septics..

As for the hijacking of Haiti see my entry:

http://scotlandunspun.blogspot.com/2010/02/haiti-kidnapping.html

subrosa said...

I would have to be America I suspect Hythlodaeus because I don't think the UK is flavour of the month with many countries.

subrosa said...

Ah thanks for that CD. I had read that somewhere but couldn't find it.

subrosa said...

I think some rights were sold after the first exploration Alex but I've no idea of the quantity found then.

Thanks for the link Alex.

subrosa said...

Alex, plenty food for thought there. While I agree the US is scattering itself widely, I just wonder if they're prepared to fall out so completely with China.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

Events has it right.

The Argies are after the oil that surrounds the islands, if they want it they will just take it.

This time round, we have no money, no troops, hardly any navy, no merchant fleet to conscript into an instant navy, no goodwill from the US, and most importantly, no Maggie.

The Argies are not stupid, they can see all this too.

No doubt if the Falklanders try to come to the UK to escape their fate, they'll be told by NuLab that they are aliens with no right of entry.

UN edicts about self-determination? Tell that to the Tibetans. Or come to that, the British: did we self-determinedly become a vassal of Brussels? Some weasel words will be found, I am sure.

subrosa said...

Hi Weekend Yachtsman, the exploration isn't new, it's been going on for some time.

But of course the Argentinians have been watching and waiting. Why pay for exploration when others are foolish enough to do it without asking if they want a share?

I read somewhere today that Brown may be happy to sell the Falklands to Argentina. It was said in jest but then many events start that way.

Crinkly & Ragged Arsed Philosophers said...

Can the world get any more stupid?

If there's oil there, is it impossible for two countries to develop it as a joint venture?

It's the two LLs the UK may hold the legal rights but Argentina has all the logistical cards.

South America is a rising force in this world while the UK is declining. A touch of commercial thinking wouldn't go amiss on this one; especially on the part of England under the threat of losing the North Sea revenue.

And the last thing we need is the gung-ho attitude enticing another tyrant to tell us to Rejoice - Rejoice.

subrosa said...

You want common sense to enter into politics RA? Dream on.

This matter could have been handled exactly as you suggest one the first exploration issued their findings, but no, the UK wouldn't even talk to Argentina then. They still don't.

CrazyDaisy said...

SR

There were talks and a tentative agreement which seems to have been kicked into the long grass.

Lots happening in SA which affects UK but Im unable to discuss due to OSA when it becomes open source you'll not be surprised.

Argies have managed to score highly with their latest wheeze!

subrosa said...

I would have thought there would have been a bit of diplomatic procedure going on CD so it's a shame it's been halted.

Aye the Argies have done well with this.

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