My answer is yes it will happen and I live in the hope it will happen in my lifetime, assuming I live another 20 years.
The main reason for my slight scepticism regarding the timing, is the voting habits of the electorate. It is common knowledge that older people are more inclined to vote than younger generations.
Scotland's Population (2006)
16-29 18%
30-44 22%
45-59 21%
60-74 14%
75+ 7%
It is also well documented that the younger generations are prepared to embrace independence whereas those of my generation and above (21% of the population), if they don't support independence now, they are very unlikely to change their minds and they are the age group which considers it a duty and privilege to vote.
Just recently I was talking to someone of around my own age about a local issue. She was telling me of an incident which was of some importance and I asked her if she had informed our MSP. She stepped back in horror stating, "Oh no, he's SNP!" To clarify her statement I must tell you this area was Tory for many years before it changed to SNP in the 90s and very obviously this woman was a Tory. Laughingly, I explained our MSP would not insist she joins the party before he listened to her, but she wasn't convinced. This is a perfect example of older attitudes to politics and politicians.
The support for independence has risen from around 23% to 35% in recent years and much of this increase can be attributed to the efficient and professional manner with which the SNP has governed in the past two years and more. Will it increase in the very near future? No, not enough to make a difference, because we need 15-20% more to support the case. Younger groups, where there could be a slight increase, appear to be far more flexible and open to change than those of my own age and I certainly see hope for independence coming from them, but until today's over 60s die off, the percentage voting for independence will not reach the 51% that is needed for a mandate to push ahead.
Of course none of the above should deter us from having a referendum, when the time is right, about Scotland's future but it must include the independence question. The SNP government need at least another term in Holyrood before a referendum should be considered. Roughly a third of voters support Scotland being an independent nation and they cannot be ignored, no matter how much the unionist parties wish the SNP and independence supporters would just walk off a cliff.
We need more information but it is difficult to state policy because our initial independence policies will be associated with the arrangements made with the Westminster government. Until now Westminster has refused to even acknowledge the possibility that the Scots may want to go it alone, but they are worried. Supporters of independence know every dirty trick in the book will be thrown at them during the referendum campaign, but they shall no longer be intimidated by unionist scaremongering, as it can and does work in their favour these days.
Ian Hamilton QC would like to get a discussion going on what Scotland will be like after independence. Take part here, My reader Stuart Dickson has given this link in comments and it is to the Adam Smith Institute's publication of Dr Madsen Pirie's new report 'Zero Based Policy'. Stuart recommends Chapter 17 but I think the whole document is worth a read.
Before you go do vote in the Independence Poll. Many thanks.
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16 comments:
The timing of Scotland's coming independence will almost certainly be significantly affected by events outwith Scotland. Eg, a straw in the wind:
Yesterday the Adam Smith Institute published Dr Madsen Pirie's new report 'Zero Base Policy'.
Chapter 17 - English Parliament - is worth a read:
The devolution afforded Scotland, Wales and restored to Northern Ireland has created constitutional anomalies within the UK. The problems they have caused have been thus far a source of irritation, but circumstances could easily arise in which a crisis could be precipitated by events.
The anomalous position is that of the four nations within the UK, only England lacks its own parliament.
http://www.adamsmith.org/images/stories/zero-base-policy-FINAL.pdf
Morning Stuart thanks for the link.
Yes I agree it will come about from outwith our borders therefore that could possibly be classed as by default couldn't it.
I'm off to read your link.
The whole of the UK and Eire need to be worried about LONDON independence.
They're intent on scarpering with all the goodies and leaving the rest of us with the fag ends.
London loves the EU despite their protestations, it's another free ride at our expense.
Be careful what you wish for.
My honest opinion is many older voters are concerned about their pensions and health care in an Independent scotland.
If you have paid into the UK pension for all your working life what happens after Independence.
Airy fairy promises are not good enough if the Nationalist wish to convince older voters they should
answer their concerns on how will they live after Independence.
ps
My daughter in law said my granddaughter is being taken to a ploughing match with the other children from her nursery.
she had to look up on the internet to find out what a ploughing match was. My daughter in law is a teacher if people such as her do not understand anything about farming what chance the younger generation.
About a thousand years ago and i were a lad I and my six brothers at one time or another used to work on the farms after school and during holidays(and the days we should of gone to school).
so haven't got a lot of time for the poor farmer(you ever see a farmer on a push bike its old joke i know but has truth inside it)
But still i find it sad to see a way of life slowly disappear
and just wonder how much we have become disconnected from what we eat and how it gets to our table.
You're right Niko. My age group think they've "done their bit" and are only interested in how their savings and pensions are diminishing week by week. They won't give attention to independence because they remember the days when UK was a desirable place to live.
Niko as I said, it's hard for the SNP to state policies when much depends on the arrangements with London, but we do need further discussion.
Isn't that sad Niko that a teacher doesn't know what ploughing is. Mind you she's not alone, I know teachers who have little general knowledge.
The supermarkets have a lot to answer for because they destroyed the greengrocer - in fact the word will soon become obsolete.
subrosa,
I think you slightly under-estimate the thought processes of the less young generation. For instance, reading between the lines, quite a few of the pro-independence posters on the Scotsman site seem to be in that generation.
I'm surprised that the percentage of those over 75 are near enough half those 16 - 29. Going by these percentages you have a good chance on seeing independence in 2029.
I bet one British Pound Sterling that Scotland will be an independent state as recognised in international law, before 31st May 2017.
Assumes either a Yes vote in a Referendum next year, or a more likely scenario....
No referendum held next year due to London parties continuing to block it. A majority SNP Government at Holyrood after the 2015 Scottish General Election and a Yes to a Referendum within a year of that.
We may not have all the loose ends all tied up by 2017, but the main deal will have been done.
Anyone who wants to take the bet on the second scenario can hand over the money to me at the Independence Day celebrations on the Royal Mile. :)
http://loosechange-cruachan.blogspot.com/
Thanks for the link SR.
http://www.ianhamiltonqc.com/blog/.
Again referring back to the Grasping the Thistle book, I believe that it is vital in the coming 12 months that a more coherent picture of what independence will look like is given higher priority.
It will not be enough to simply say something along the lines of "just the same as any other independent state".
Among a whole long list, I think people will want to know in particular the practical arrangements for the armed forces, the future of the Trident bases, State Pensions, membership of the EU and NATO, etc.
Malc in the Burgh gives some useful links to the recent National Conversation documents.
Given the full might of the British State will be brought to bear to avoid a Referendum and then to achieve a No vote, the independence movement will need to significantly raise our game.
Incoming, that's why Scotland needs to keep ahead of the game. We need an agreement in place before London decide to go it alone.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if they already have plenty plans in place.
No Brownlie I don't think I underestimated the young ones. They're the ones who DO want independence. The problem is us (well nearly you!).
OK Cruachan, but it has to be a banknote relevant to Scotland ie a bank with Scotland in the title or the Clydesdale. :)
Yes indeed Crauchan, I've been saying for ages we need an outline of policies brought into the public arena. Taking them round with the National Conversation isn't reaching enough people.
Don't know how we do that really. A booklet to every household? Expensive but would reach everyone.
I should have put Malc's link up, I'll do it for Saturday.
Interesting, people have often said the Scottish vote will change with the demographics of the country.
I often thought it would come from the younger voter because the older traditional voters were dying off but of course the older we get the wiser we become so I'm not surprised the SNP will benefit.
BTW on your independence poll i noticed 60% say 5 years, hmm i hope so but i think it will be a wee bit longer and im sure you will see it within 20 years :)
I don't think 5 years either Spook, but it could be 10 years - much depends on how London behave doesn't it.
Yes the SNP have a great youth voting base who will determinedly stick to their guns.
Brilliant post, by the way.
Many thanks OutLander. The reader comments make it though, rather than my writing.
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